The brand new analysis provides to a rising physique of proof indicating that banning the gross sales of safer options drives customers away from the safer options and again to smoking.
Utilizing state-level cigarette gross sales knowledge, the researchers discovered that Massachusetts, which enacted a full ban on nicotine vapes, had 7.5% larger than-expected per capita cigarette gross sales.
Equally, gross sales knowledge launched by Piper Jaffray in contrast the 4 weeks ending October twentieth 2019, to the 4 weeks previous to the ban, after which in contrast the figures to the gross sales knowledge of the identical interval final 12 months. The evaluation revealed that as predicted, ex-smokers in Massachusetts who had switched to vaping so as to curb their behavior, returned to smoking.
The decline in cigarette gross sales’ charges lowered
In a publish on his weblog web page discussing these figures, public well being skilled Dr. Michael Siegel, identified that on a nationwide scale there was solely a minimal distinction in cigarette gross sales between these two time intervals from 2018 to 2019, and that nevertheless this distinction was extra vital in Massachusetts.
“Nationally, there was little or no distinction within the price of decline in cigarette gross sales between these two time intervals from 2018 to 2019. The speed of decline decelerated by 0.3 proportion factors (from -7.8% to -7.5%). Nevertheless, in Massachusetts, the speed of decline decelerated by a large 5.7 proportion factors (from -9.8% to -4.1%),” mentioned Siegel.
“One other manner of expressing that is that in September 2019, nationwide cigarette gross sales had been 92.5% of what they had been in September 2018, and in October 2019, they had been 92.2% of what they had been in October, 2018. Thus, there was little change within the price of decline,” he defined concerning the nationwide figures.
Nevertheless, he identified, the information particular to Massachusetts tells a unique story. “Whereas cigarette gross sales in September 2019 had been 90.2% of what they had been in September 2018, in October 2019, they had been 95.9% of what they had been in October 2018, a considerable reducing of the speed of decline in cigarette gross sales.”